Arctic Central Bank // I Quarter Economic Report 2019

Summary
In an unexpected turn of events, a recession looms in the region. Overall economic growth over the past quarter was negative and the region fell in many global rankings. Unemployment also seems to have increased region-wide, despite not yet having a dramatic effect on people's average income and standards of living. As a response, the ACB has made small adjustments to regional interest rates and well-dressed accountants from all member nations are arguing behind their calculators to attempt to find a more efficient solution.

Arctic industrial standing in global industry rankings seem to have taken a general fall as well with places dropped in 13 of the 18 industries. It is however worth noting that the amount of regions in the world has also seen a steady climb over the past months.

On a more positive note, the Arctic has overall continued steady progress in combatting corruption and black market economy. Most nations also remain free, developed and respecting of private property and economic freedom which should allow for a speedy recovery. The Polar Crown has also slowly pushed onwards towards more popularity and use.

Key number
The total Arctic GDP is 35,883,447,000,000,000 (approximately thirty-six and a quarter quadrillion) currency units. This figure means a drop of 1.12% from the last quarter despite the region being larger by two nation than in the previous census.

Common currency
Out of the region's current 39 nations, the Polar Crown is the official currency of 20: Amzos, Crockerland, Exosar, International-Nations, Jajan, Kubrath, Laffin Island, Langrick, Novaya Zemlya, Nyaryaga, Pigwir, Rengis, Serenicy, The Ice Bears, The Kingdom of the Ice Bears, Troekochi, Upro, Witty penguins, Yayna, Yooo.

The total number of countries using the Polar Crown has grown by one (19 to 20) since the last quarter with three kinds of changes occurring:
- One nation that has (hopefully temporarily) ceased to exist: Prekrasnaya Zemlya
- Two nations that have adopted the Polar Crown: Jajan and Pigwir

The collective GDP of the currency zone nations is 27,569,134,000,000,000 Crowns which makes up about 76.8% of the region's total economic output (75.0% last time) and has increased slightly over this quarter. Nations using the Crown generally tend to be older and established nations and as a result have large overall economies while the GDP per capita doesn't have as strong of a correlation to the currency used.

The ACB welcomes the new Polar Crown nations and extends them a thanks on behalf of the regional goverment!

Regional rankings
Arctic standing in economic fields out of a total of 23,976 world regions (22,137 last quarter):
(*Up/down in brackets indicates change in ranking from previous quarter)
(*Region's leading nation in the field included in brackets, X2 means same nation as last time, X3 same as last two quarters)

Overall economy:
- 2,011th (down 294) for Highest Economic Output (highest: Laffin Island X3)
- 8,951st (down 1,001) for Most Efficient Economies (most: Kubrath X3)

Economic policy:
- 3,585th (down 313) for Most Subsidized Industry (most: Polarea X2)
- 4,438th (down 458) for Most Scientifically Advanced (most: Polarea X2)
- 7,913th (down 474) in the world for Highest Average Tax Rates (highest: Novaya Zemlya X3)
- 9,285th (up 307) for Most Income Equality (most: Pigwir)
- 15,161st (down 1612) for Most Pro-Market (most: Zyzzzyx X2)
- 18,805th (down 2164) for Highest Workforce Participation Rate (highest: Pigwir X3)
- 20,392nd (down 1060) for Lowest Overall Tax Burden (lowest: Zyzzzyx X3)

Citizen income:
- 4,886th (down 262) for Highest Average Incomes (highest: Polarea X2)
- 4,156th (down 258) for Highest Poor Incomes (highest: Polarea X2)
- 6,757th (down 431) for Highest Wealthy Incomes (highest: They X2)
- 7,298th (up 418) for Highest Disposable Incomes (highest: They X2)
- 4,477th (down 378) for Greatest Rich-Poor Divides (greatest: Zyzzzyx X2)

Industries:
- 3,163rd (down 887) for Largest Publishing Industry (largest: The Ice Bears X3)
- 4,195th (down 235) Largest Information Technology Sector (largest: Exosar X3)
- 5,061st (up 98) for Largest Soda Pop Sector (largest: The Ice Bears X3)
- 5,595th (down 705) for Largest Automobile Manufacturing Sector (largest: Amzos X3)
- 5,740th (down 354) for Most Popular Tourist Destinations (most: Pigwir X3)
- 7,559th (down 1014) for Largest Furniture Restoration Industry (largest: Laffin Island X3)
- 8,275th (down 492) for Largest Manufacturing Sector (largest: Yayna X3)
- 8,545th (up 340) for Largest Retail Industry (largest: Zyzzzyx X3)
- 8,794th (down 843) for Largest Arms Manufacturing Sector (largest: Yayna X3)
- 9,225th (down 634) for Largest Timber Woodchipping Industry (largest: Yayna X3)
- 9,793rd (down 356) for Largest Cheese Export Sector (largest: Maas X3)
- 9,910th (down 1090) for Largest Mining Sector (largest: Yayna X3)
- 10,083rd (up 2477) for Largest Trout Fishing Sector (largest: Lunar tribes)
- 10,429th (up 119) for Largest Basket Weaving Sector (largest: Serenicy X3)
- 10,949th (down 262) for Largest Gambling Industry (largest: They X2)
- 11,483rd (up 566) for Largest Pizza Delivery Sector (largest: Maas X3)
- 12,689th (down 1242) for Largest Insurance Industry (largest: Serenicy X3)
- 13,059th (down 1812) for Largest Agricultural Sector (largest: Norrhett)

Shadow economy:
- 2,095th (down 177) for Largest Black Market (largest: Laffin Island X2)
- 5,600th (down 388) for Most Corrupt Governments (most: Novaya Zemlya X2)

Notable nations
Most efficient economies (according to Krugman-Greenspan Business Outlook Index):
1) Kubrath - 100.00
1) Serenicy - 100.00
1) Amzos - 100.00
1) Polarea - 100.00
5) Exosar - 99.86

Highest overall GDP:
1) Laffin Island - 3,290,329,000,000,000 Polar Crowns
2) Yayna - 3,190,993,000,000,000 Polar Crowns
3) The Ice Bears - 3,128,293,000,000,000 Polar Crowns
4) Novaya Zemlya - 2,657,172,000,000,000 Polar Crowns
5) Kubrath - 1,892,573,000,000,000 Polar Crowns

Highest incomes per capita:
1) Polarea - 165,059 Arcbytes
2) Novaya Zemlya - 159,724 Polar Crowns
3) They - 145,992 Them
4) Exosar - 134,750 Polar Crowns
5) Maas - 132,363 Polaarkronas

Lowest incomes per capita:
1) Tinorom - 18,688 Tins
2) Pigwir - 21,524 Polar Crowns
3) Upro - 22,292 Polar Crowns
4) Lakshmistan - 29,976 Tikis
5) International-Nations - 30,198 Polar Crowns

Industry
Based on this report as well as the ones before it, a conclusion can be reached that Arctic industry rankings on a global scale as well as leading nations in different industries in the region generally remain the same over long periods of time. This is most likely due to older nations having established their preferential economic models and don't deviate from them strongly (a fact that's neither positive nor negative). The dominant Arctic industries are book publishing, IT and beverage sales while the weakest industries are agriculture, insurance and pizza delivery. Largest rise in rankings was made by trout fishing (somehow despite all rivers being frozen over) and the largest drop in agriculture (which makes more sense considering the winter).

Future predictions
The Arctic Central Bank estimated a general 3-7% economic growth for the first quarter of 2019 assuming the population stays toughly the same. An actual economic drop of 1% with a reasonably large regional population serves as a reminder of how unpredictable the world of business, politics and money can be.
Considering this lesson in the advanced GUESSING formula (Gathering Underlying Economic-Social Systematic Information on Nations' Growth), the ACB predicts a regional economic growth of 1-4% for the second quarter of 2019 (April-June). This estimate is based on the assumption that by the beginning of July the region will be home to 35-40 nations, numbers higher or lower than that will impact the economic growth accordingly.

Improvement
With the regional economy facing difficulties and the Arctic's long-term trend of slow and sustainable growth in danger, the ACB presents the following key suggestions (although by no means requirements) for heads of individual member nations for the first quarter of 2019:
- Choose key industries to develop within your nation (possibly more modern ones such as retail, IT and tourism) and keep the requirements of those industries in mind when enacting policies;
- Resolve upcoming issues in ways that contribute to economic growth (advice aimed mostly at older nations that have often retreated from active decision-making - the ACB can assure that many new issues have emerged in the gameplay over recent months that are worth checking out);
- Prefer policies that favor economic freedom, scientific developent, education and are estimated to raise the overall intelligence of the populations;
- Continue to enact policies to combat corruption and curb black market influences;
- Remain sceptical of issues that offer massive overahauls of the economic systems (e.g. placing an AI in charge of the economy) or taxation systems (e.g. slashing all government in half) and consider those actions deeply before approving them;
- Consider joining the Polar Crown nations if they have not already done so to grow financial cohesion across the region (and that sweet sense of unity).

This has been an ACB publication by Maas, feedback is welcome.
Thank you for your attention!